Mayor 2014: Wisckol On How The Mayoral Vote May Splinter

The OC Register’s veteran political reporter Martin Wisckol posted this item on the upcoming Anaheim mayoral contest:

Councilwoman Lucille Kring’s entry this month into the 2014 Anaheim mayor’s race sets up a three-way race that’s bound to split the vote. But it could split in numerous ways, leaving it unclear who will benefit.

Some see incumbent Tom Tait and his former council ally Lorri Galloway splitting some of the issue-oriented vote. Both have called for council elections in which only a given district’s voters can vote for candidates in that district, a plan they say would increase council representation of poorer and ethnic communities. Both have been critical of some city development subsidies and of the city’s approach to renegotiating the Angels’ stadium lease.

But the vote could split along several other lines. Thanks to blogger and political consultant Matthew Cunningham for hipping me to splits I hadn’t thought of.

Republican vs. Republican. Galloway is the sole Democrat in the race.

Challenger vs. challenger. Will those who don’t like incumbent Tom Tait split their vote between Kring and Galloway?

Woman vs. woman. Tait could gain a little advantage if the female vote is split along gender lines.

Union vs. union. The city’s police and fire unions are backing Kring. Most other municipal employees are represented by the Orange County Employees Association, which is expected to back Galloway. That faceoff could also benefit Tait.

I would respectfully disagree that the at-large v. single-member council district issue is really vote-determinative.  To the extent that Anaheim voters even consider it important, my hunch is they would tend to favor retaining at-large voting.

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