Another day, another round of updates on the 37th Senate District special election…

National Rifle Association Endorses Don Wagner
The Wagner for Senate campaign today announced the National Rifle Association has endorsed Assemblyman Wagner’s candidacy:

NRA ENDORSES WAGNER FOR STATE SENATE
Encourages members to support the “Gun owners choice” for SD 37

IRVINE – The National Rifle Association (NRA) has announced today that it is throwing the organization’s full weight behind Assemblyman Don Wagner for election to the State Senate.

“In the special election for Senate District 37, the choice of gun owners is clear. Don Wagner has a solid record when it comes to defending the right to keep and bear arms,” said NRA CA State Liaison Ed Worley. “He supports and respects the 2nd Amendment, and we encourage all our members to cast their ballots for Assemblyman Wagner on March 17th.”

The NRA is America’s longest-standing civil rights organization. The Association has over 5 million members and a long history of supporting candidates who have a clear record of supporting 2nd Amendment rights.

This is a big one for the many 2nd Amendment voters in the 37th Senate District, especially since the special election electorate will tilt even more heavily conservative than normal. And in times like the present, with the anti-gun Obama Administration in power and state government in the hands of anti-gun Democrats, 2nd Amendment voters are motivated and attuned to which candidates are most aligned with them.

While I believe the primary reason for this endorsement is Wagner’s strong pro-2nd Amendment voting record, there’s some back story that may have played a role. When John Moorlach became a county supervisor, he tapped a law professor named Mario Mainero to be his chief of staff. Mainero is a very intelligent and educated man, and was the tip of the spear in Moorlach’s ongoing fight to unwind the burden of the county’s unfunded pension liability. At the time, Mainero views on guns (and the 1st Amendment issue of campaign finance restrictions) were very moderate; he had no real issues with gun control laws. Mainero’s views were not Moorlach’s (who lands squarely in the conservative camp on that issue). But he was a high-profile chief of staff, and due to his softness on the issue, combined with the quickness of Sheriff Sandra Hutchens (for whom Moorlach provided the crucial third vote for her appointment) to reverse Mike Carona’s permissive CCW policy, the perception of being soft-on-guns attached itself to Moorlach.

Fundraising Update
Moorlach must have held a fundraiser this week because nine checks rolled in yesterday and today, totalling $16,400. That pushes his fundraising total nearly $80,000.

Wagner raised $30,350 so far this week, bringing his fundraising total to about $380,000.

GOP Voters Dominating The Voting 
According to the OC Registrar of Voters, 259,577 vote-by-mail (VBM) ballots  have been issued. 116,828 have been issued to Republican voters versus 72,373 to Democrats and 59,028 to independent voters.

40,761 VBMs have been returned thus far: 24,243 from Republicans, 8357 from Democrats and 5,491 from independents. So, while Republicans make of 45% of VBM voters in the district, they constitute 60% of the VBMs that have been cast to date.

Mail Games
I live in north Orange the 37th Senate District, and thus far our high-propensity Republican household has received only a single mailer from the Moorlach campaign versus quite a few from the Wagner campaign and independent expenditures. A hi-pro GOP friend who lives in east Orange has received 2 or 3 Moorlach campaign mailers. Orange has been represented by Don Wagner in the Assembly since 2010.

Another friend and hi-pro GOP voter who lives in Newport Beach, also in SD37 and also part of the 2nd Supervisor District that Moorlach represented for eight years, hasn’t received any Moorlach mail.

One savvy political observer I know suggests this may be the Moorlach campaign trying to make the most of a limited budget by banking on his residual name ID in those parts of SD37 within the 2nd Supervisor District and focusing its mail program on parts of the district that haven’t been represented by Moorlach.